Greetings from the post-Covid future
For much of the world, the USA is a laboratory where we experiment with the post-Covid future. What does the post-Covid human crave for? What will the winning post-Covid services look like? In this blog, I open my experiences and use them to predict the future ahead.
Covid shots became available in Texas for non-high-risk people in early April, ahead of most countries. I was fully vaccinated on April 28th. For another two weeks and I started re-experimenting with face-to-face interaction by traveling to Florida, with hotel breakfasts, airport lounges, and sports events. For most of you, this is the future, and for some of you, a distant future.
Since everyone thinks their approach to Covid is the only sensible one, let me ground things by describing how I’ve lived the past year. Flights = 0; In-restaurant dinners = 1; Sports = video-conferencing; Entertainment = Netflix. Our children go to face-to-face school, meet close friends, and participate in sports with face masks. To be clear, I’m not promoting my choices but rather describing where I’ve come from. The future predictions are not based on research and are based on personal experiences.
What I’ve missed and now enjoyed even more
At the top of my list is meeting new people. Having a sit-down dinner with other dads at my daughter’s competition felt surprisingly liberating. The music was a bit loud, and the five of us had to lean forward and raise our voices to be heard – and that was ok. At least the extroverts will get a boost of spirits once things open up. Secondly, after a year of doing things for ourselves, it felt great to get service; A waitress bringing a plate, an attendant welcoming you at the gate or lounge. I concluded that I’ve been inundated with material goods and streaming services during the lockdown but badly left lacking real service.
What I didn’t consciously miss but enjoyed more than expected
Travel in the post-Covid future was like experiencing the utopia of travel posters from way back; No lines at airport security. Limited seating at sporting events and restaurants and fewer travelers means easy parking and less waiting. Even the lines in Disneyworld were less than an hour. When I was told the airport lounge is at capacity, I initially felt frustrated. However, when I got in, it dawned on me why. The hotel pool wasn’t crammed to the brim, as the seating was limited. It felt extra relaxing. Airport lounges on both ends operated at half capacity, which means I was relaxing, not just standing in a different line. Premium experiences have become watered down over time. Post-covid services offer a brief window into what attention, space, and availability feel like. The masses will return, but we’ll have a contemporary perspective on what awesome feels like.
Seek excitement, and frustrations can’t be avoided
Lockdown has been boring, but I’ve gotten used to instant convenience. A first-class flight is excellent compared to the couch but it can’t beat the home sofa, widescreen, sound system, and Uber Eats. Over the past year, I’ve learned to eliminate inconvenience effectively. Sure, I’ve also eliminated much of the excitement and luxury, so now everything has become Marriot Courtyard. Convenient, and familiar, but not exactly exciting.
I didn’t remember how uncomfortable airplane seats were. I used to travel a lot, so they had become part of the baseline. Instead of enjoying my movie, I was told three times how the cabin had been deep-sanitized with some iodized alien technology. Competent stuff, apparently, except against crumbles on the floor and fingerprints on the screen. My tolerance for unsubstantiated marketing claims has severely diminished. I’ve earned a top status with the airline, car rental, and hotel chain of my choice. On this trip, only the hotel chain delivered on expectation. In the future, I’ll be reassessing what exactly do I get, what do I value, and who gets my business. Covid disrupted my routines. In the post-Covid future, I don’t need a big disappointment to ditch a routine, brand, or spending pattern.
“Entering Covid uniformly disrupted us; the exit disruption will be very different.“
Forecasting your future
So, if I’m living in the post-Covid future, how does it look like from here? Admittedly, I’m interpreting personal experiences and putting them in the business context. Please take these as my predictions with a grain of salt. A little bit like our 2021 predictions.
Entering Covid uniformly disrupted us; the exit disruption will be very different. Last year, companies and people all pulled back. Some voluntarily, some after being forced, but the results were social distancing, lock-downs, and working from home. When the restrictions are lifted, we’ll see a spectrum of directions. Some companies continue to embrace remote working; some don’t. Similarly, some individuals want to work from home, while others can’t wait to escape the isolation. Company policies and individual preferences won’t match. There will be great opportunities when companies and talent are seeking their matches.
Predictions
- Your customers won’t be coming back. Sure, you may see more customers than today, perhaps more than ever. But who are they? Before Covid, only 7% of workers in the U.S. had access to a “flexible workplace” benefit (Pew). 60% work remotely now, and at the end of 2021, this is still expected to be almost 40% (Willis Towers Watson). Add to this changes in school, travel, spending habits, and all the personal preference shifts. Whatever customer profiling you’ve done, whatever personas you’re used to, just start over. And keep iterating. This is a gift that will keep on giving.
- The soft product has potential. Based on a sample size of one and tracking of almost a week, I can say with confidence that service matters. Let’s take a restaurant as an example. Most of us can cook a decent meal and order what we can’t. It’s not a better dish alone we’re after but the experience as a whole. What we’ve been deprived of is what we grave: interaction, service, a moment of relaxation, savoring distant memories, and dreaming of the future. The post-Covid services will be evaluated with different criteria and weighting than before the pandemic.
- The opportunity is now. If there ever was a perfect storm to disrupt, grow and gain market share, it’s now. People are hungry for experiences after hibernation. Much of the competition will offer the old recipe. Much of the customer base wants to try something new or is forced to look for something new due to changes elsewhere in their lives. The economic stimulus has pumped liquidity to the market, and personal savings rates are higher than in decades (Federal Reserve). If you know your customer and can seize the moment, this could be the opportunity of a lifetime.
Conclusion
In conclusion, I predict there is pent-up demand for services in the post-Covid future. People are willing to pay for convenience and service with a human touch. The experiences many companies offer are out of tune with the post-vaccine demand. If you have time to refine your service, do it now before things open up again.
We’re interested in your thoughts. If you have any predictions to share or experiences with the re-opening of your own communities, please contact us.
